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目录

目录

第一篇 中国经济运行的格局

第一章 研判中国宏观经济的框架和指标 ···················································2

一、宏观经济如何运转 ··········································································2

二、常用的中国宏观经济指标··································································5

第二章 GDP—综合测度中国经济 ·························································8

一、GDP如何统计 ···············································································8

二、中国GDP的规模、增速与结构 ························································10

三、容易混淆的GDP与GNI ·································································15

第三章 三大产业—认清中国经济的供给侧 ············································19

一、国民经济行业如何划分 ··································································19

二、稳定中国经济基本盘的第一产业 ·······················································21

三、第二产业成就中国全球制造业大国地位 ··············································26

四、成长中的服务业 ···········································································37

五、观察行业是否景气—采购经理指数(PMI) ······································48

第四章 三大需求—读懂中国经济的需求侧 ············································54

一、14亿人口汇聚起的消费力量 ····························································54

二、投资—中国经济增长中的“关键先生” ···········································64

三、认识全球第一贸易大国的进出口 ·······················································77

读懂中国经济

格局、周期与趋势

VIII

第五章 价格—观察中国经济的通胀水平 ···············································91

一、衡量社会总体价格水平的GDP平减指数·············································91

二、与日常生活息息相关的居民消费品价格 ··············································95

三、影响企业生产经营的工业生产者价格 ················································100

第六章 就业—关注中国经济的最大民生 ·············································104

一、就业情况的整体衡量 ····································································104

二、经济增长创造的城镇新增就业机会 ···················································107

三、反映劳动力闲置状况的指标—失业率 ·············································109

四、求人倍率与工资—衡量劳动力市场的供需情况 ·································111

五、城乡“二元”结构下的农民工就业 ···················································112

第七章 财政收支—看清政府的财政政策 ·············································114

一、“四本预算”揭示财政收支路径 ······················································114

二、从财政赤字变化观察财政风险 ·························································126

三、分税制下的地方政府债务问题 ·························································128

第八章 货币调控—理解央行的货币政策 ·············································134

一、货币政策的目标与工具 ·································································134

二、我国的货币政策转型 ····································································138

三、人民币汇率的决定 ·······································································148

第一篇小结 后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ··········································153

一、中国经济的基本格局 ····································································153

二、后疫情时代中国经济的基本特征 ······················································155

三、疫情“后遗症”带给中国经济的新挑战 ·············································158

第二篇 

中国经济波动的周期

第九章 经济周期分析框架和中国经济增长的周期波动 ·······························162

一、什么是经济周期 ··········································································162

目 录

IX

二、如何划分经济周期的阶段·······························································163

三、几种常见的经济周期 ····································································168

四、中国经济运行中的周期波动 ····························································171

第十章 农业周期—农产品供给和价格的规律性波动 ·······························175

一、气候变化与农作物生产 ·································································175

二、中国的猪周期波动 ·······································································180

第十一章 创新周期—科技革命和产业变革的发生规律 ····························186

一、科技和产业革命与创新周期 ····························································186

二、中国经济运行中的创新周期 ····························································195

三、创新周期下的能源转型 ·································································196

第十二章 房地产周期—房地产波动背后的驱动因素 ·······························199

一、人口与房地产周期 ·······································································199

二、人口因素影响下的中国房地产长周期 ················································203

三、房地产调控与房地产短周期波动 ······················································205

第十三章 设备投资周期—设备投资如何影响经济增长 ····························214

一、设备更新与设备投资周期·······························································214

二、中国的设备投资周期 ····································································217

第十四章 库存周期—存货变化与工业品价格短期波动 ····························224

一、企业存货管理与库存周期·······························································224

二、中国的库存周期 ··········································································226

三、库存周期与工业品价格、资源类周期股走势 ·······································231

第十五章 金融周期—流动性改变如何引发房价共振 ·······························235

一、信贷、资产价格与金融周期 ····························································235

二、中国的金融周期 ··········································································238

三、金融周期下的资产价格波动 ····························································247

读懂中国经济

格局、周期与趋势

第二篇小结 经济周期视角下的“十四五”时期中国经济走势 ······················249

一、中国经济运行的周期规律·······························································249

二、“十四五”时期中国经济的走势 ······················································252

三、防范化解影响我国经济平稳运行的内外部风险 ····································255

第三篇 

中国经济增长的趋势

第十六章 经济增长的规律和动力机制 ···················································258

一、经济增长的一般规律 ····································································258

二、经济增长背后的动力机制·······························································261

第十七章 经济增长的不同阶段 ····························································266

一、经济增长阶段的划分 ····································································266

二、中国经济增长的二元经济阶段 ·························································270

第十八章 经济增长的动力分解 ····························································282

一、经济增长因素分解 ·······································································282

二、改革开放以来中国经济增长的动力 ···················································285

第十九章 经济增长中的产业结构变迁 ···················································296

一、经济增长过程中的产业结构演变 ······················································296

二、要素禀赋如何决定主导产业的发展 ···················································301

三、未来中国的产业发展之路·······························································307

第二十章 经济增长中的需求结构演变 ···················································316

一、经济增长过程中的需求结构变化 ······················································316

二、消费结构的长期变化规律·······························································321

三、消费升级与产业结构的调整 ····························································334

第二十一章 经济增长中的城乡结构变化 ················································337

一、城市化率的“S”形变化规律 ··························································337

目 录

二、中国改革开放以来的城镇化进程 ······················································339

三、城镇化与基础设施、住房投资前景 ···················································343

四、城镇化与未来的城市竞争·······························································348

第二十二章 经济增长中的收入分配结构变化 ··········································351

一、要素收入分配结构的变化规律 ·························································351

二、改革开放以来中国的要素收入分配结构演变 ·······································353

三、个人收入分配结构如何演变 ····························································355

四、中国的个人收入分配变化与壮大中等收入群体 ····································357

第二十三章 经济增长中的跨境贸易投资变化 ··········································362

一、对外贸易结构的变化规律·······························································362

二、中国从贸易大国走向贸易强国 ·························································367

三、跨境直接投资的变化规律·······························································372

四、中国直接投资从“引进来”到“走出去” ··········································374

第三篇小结 2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ······································380

一、定位长期经济增长中的中国经济 ······················································380

二、2035年远景目标下的中国经济增长 ··················································383

三、如何保障翻番目标的实现·······························································394

后记 ·······························································································399

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